Africa Resource Wars: The New Scramble for Lithium and Cobalt

Key Findings

• The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) controls over 70% of global cobalt production, with reserves estimated at 3.5 million metric tons as of March 2026 (USGS).
• Zimbabwe holds Africa’s largest lithium reserves, estimated at 220,000 metric tons, and ranks as the world’s sixth-largest lithium producer (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, January 2026).
• Chinese companies invested over $12.1 billion in African mining projects between 2022 and 2025, focusing on cobalt, lithium, and rare earths (China Mining Association, March 2026).
• The U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor, announced in September 2023, aims to connect Angolan ports to Congolese and Zambian mineral fields, countering Chinese logistical dominance.
• Environmental degradation and exploitative labor practices remain endemic, with over 40,000 children estimated to work in DRC’s artisanal cobalt mines (UNICEF, 2025).

The New Colonial Scramble: 21st Century Resource Wars

The rapid electrification of the global economy, driven by electric vehicle (EV) expansion and renewable energy storage, has triggered a renewed scramble for Africa’s mineral wealth. Unlike the 19th-century colonial partition, the 2026 “Africa resource wars lithium cobalt new scramble” is fought not with armies, but with investment, infrastructure, and regulatory influence. The strategic focus: lithium for batteries, cobalt for energy density and stability, and platinum group metals (PGMs) for fuel cells and catalytic converters.

EV demand projections underscore this new scramble. Global EV sales are forecast to hit 28.3 million units in 2026, up from 10.5 million in 2022 (IEA, Global EV Outlook 2026). Each EV battery requires 8-15 kg of cobalt and up to 10 kg of lithium. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global lithium demand will reach 1.15 million metric tons (LCE) in 2026, a 21.6% CAGR since 2020, and cobalt demand will reach 220,000 metric tons, up 18% since 2022.

This demand surge has made Africa a geopolitical battleground for China, the United States, the European Union, and, increasingly, Australia. These actors are vying for control over supply chains, regulatory environments, and the infrastructure linking mines to global markets.

Africa’s Critical Mineral Reserves: The Strategic Map

Cobalt: The DRC’s Geopolitical Leverage

The DRC’s dominance in cobalt is unparalleled. According to the USGS (2026), the DRC produced 155,000 metric tons of cobalt in 2025, or 72% of global output. The country’s reserves, estimated at 3.5 million metric tons, underwrite the world’s EV ambitions. Chinese companies, led by China Molybdenum (CMOC) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, control or finance over 60% of DRC’s industrial-scale cobalt mining (Bloomberg, February 2026).

Artisanal mining—outside formal sector control—accounts for 15-20% of Congolese cobalt output, often involving unsafe practices and child labor. This sector produced an estimated 30,000 metric tons in 2025 (UNICEF, 2025), with little regulatory oversight.

Lithium: Zimbabwe’s Ascent and Regional Competition

Zimbabwe has rapidly emerged as a critical lithium supplier. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported in January 2026 that Zimbabwe produced 8,500 metric tons of lithium in 2025, up 40% from 2023. Bikita Minerals, acquired in 2022 by China’s Sinomine for $200 million, is the largest operation, while Prospect Resources’ Arcadia mine (sold to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt in 2022 for $422 million) is ramping up to 4,500 tpa (tonnes per annum) LCE capacity by Q1 2026.

Other contenders are emerging. Namibia’s Uis mine, owned by Andrada Mining, produced 2,200 metric tons of lithium concentrate in 2025, while Mali’s Goulamina project (jointly developed by Ganfeng Lithium and Leo Lithium) targets 500,000 tpa spodumene by late 2026.

Platinum Group Metals: South Africa’s Enduring Strategic Weight

South Africa retains over 90% of global platinum group metals (PGM) reserves, with 63,000 metric tons of platinum and 68,000 metric tons of palladium (USGS, 2026). Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum, and Sibanye-Stillwater dominate production. PGMs remain vital for both fuel cell and internal combustion vehicle markets, and supply risks—amplified by South Africa’s recurring power shortages (load shedding peaked at 6,000 MW in January 2026)—have prompted EU and Chinese efforts to diversify sources.

Rare Earths and Graphite: Emerging Players

Mozambique, Madagascar, and Tanzania have expanded rare earth and graphite output, with Syrah Resources’ Balama project in Mozambique producing 170,000 metric tons of graphite in 2025. These secondary resources are increasingly strategic as battery chemistries diversify.

Chinese Investment: Infrastructure, Offtake, and Influence

China remains the dominant external power in Africa’s mining sector. The China Mining Association reported $12.1 billion in new Chinese investments in African critical minerals between 2022 and 2025. Three trends define this engagement:

1. Equity and Acquisition: Chinese firms have acquired majority stakes in mines (e.g., Sinomine’s Bikita, Huayou’s Arcadia).
2. Infrastructure-for-Resources: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has delivered over 2,800 km of rail and 4,500 km of roads since 2018, connecting mines in DRC, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to ports at Dar es Salaam and Beira.
3. Long-term Offtake Agreements: China’s CATL, BYD, and other battery giants have secured 10- to 15-year offtake deals, ensuring supply chain control well into the 2030s.

These investments have transformed local economies but also embedded Chinese regulatory, logistical, and technological standards. For example, the DRC’s new mining code (revised in 2018) was heavily influenced by Chinese negotiators, who secured lower royalty rates for cobalt (3.5%) in exchange for infrastructure pledges.

The US Response: The Lobito Corridor and Strategic Partnerships

Washington seeks to counter Chinese dominance through the Lobito Corridor. Launched in September 2023, this $2.6 billion initiative—backed by the US International Development Finance Corporation, the EU, and Japan—aims to rehabilitate the 1,300 km Benguela Railway from Lobito (Angola) to Kolwezi (DRC) and Lusaka (Zambia). By March 2026, 71% of the corridor’s rehabilitation had been completed, with full operational capacity targeted for Q4 2026 (US DFC, Progress Report, March 2026).

The corridor’s strategic value lies in offering mining companies a non-Chinese export route, reducing reliance on Tanzanian and Mozambican ports under Chinese management. The U.S. also signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with Zambia and the DRC in July 2024 to support “transparent and sustainable” mining practices and facilitate Western investment in processing and refining.

Australia, the UK, and the EU have launched parallel mineral diplomacy efforts, with Australia’s Critical Minerals Facilitation Office coordinating investment consortia and technical assistance in Zimbabwe, Namibia, and South Africa (Lowy Institute, February 2026).

Environmental and Labor Conditions: Enduring Risks

Despite record investment, environmental and labor abuses remain widespread, often unaddressed by host governments or foreign investors. In the DRC, over 40,000 children work in artisanal cobalt mines, earning less than $2/day (UNICEF, 2025). Deaths and injuries from tunnel collapses and toxic exposure are frequent: Amnesty International documented 56 fatal incidents in Katanga province between January and October 2025.

In Zimbabwe, lithium extraction has triggered deforestation and water pollution. The Environmental Management Agency (EMA) recorded a 47% increase in illicit water discharge and tailings dam breaches in 2025 over the previous year. South Africa’s platinum belt faces chronic labor unrest: the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) staged a 6-week strike at Sibanye-Stillwater in May 2025, costing over $410 million in lost output (Sibanye Q2 2025 Earnings).

Chinese and Western firms have responded unevenly. While some (e.g., Anglo American Platinum) implement global ESG standards, others prioritize production over compliance. Local regulatory enforcement remains weak, with only 19% of DRC’s industrial mines meeting minimum safety standards in 2025 (World Bank, Mining Governance Report).

Mining Companies: Key Players and Strategic Moves

Chinese Companies

• China Molybdenum (CMOC): Operates Tenke Fungurume, the DRC’s largest cobalt-copper mine, with output of 20,000 tpa cobalt and 182,000 tpa copper (CMOC 2025 Annual Report).
• Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt: Controls Arcadia (Zimbabwe), and has major stakes in DRC’s Kisanfu and Kolwezi mines.
• Sinomine Resource Group: Acquired Bikita (Zimbabwe) and expanded spodumene production by 32% in 2025.

Western and Other Multinationals

• Glencore: Remains the largest Western operator in DRC, with KCC (Kamoto Copper Company) producing 16,000 tpa cobalt in 2025.
• Anglo American Platinum: Controls 37% of South Africa’s platinum output, invested $1.2 billion in mine automation and ESG compliance since 2022.
• Sibanye-Stillwater: Africa’s largest PGM producer, expanding into lithium via stake in Keliber (Finland) and exploring Zimbabwean assets.

African and Australian Entrants

• Andrada Mining (Namibia): Increased lithium concentrate output by 27% in 2025, targeting Asian battery manufacturers.
• Leo Lithium (Mali): Joint venture with Ganfeng to supply 45% of output to China under a 10-year offtake.

Demand Projections and Market Dynamics

The surge in EV adoption, combined with energy storage deployments, drives unprecedented mineral demand. By March 2026, global EV battery manufacturing capacity reached 2.4 TWh, up 350% since 2021 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence). Africa’s share of global lithium and cobalt exports increased from 18% in 2020 to 31% in 2025.

Price volatility is acute. Lithium carbonate prices peaked at $68,000/ton (spot, March 2025) before stabilizing near $41,000/ton in Q1 2026 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence). Cobalt prices, after surging to $84,200/ton in 2022, fell to $57,400/ton by March 2026 amid supply chain shocks and stockpiling in China.

Market analysts expect continued volatility. Any disruption in DRC or Zimbabwe—whether from labor unrest, regulatory change, or logistical bottlenecks—can trigger global price spikes. By 2030, IEA projects Africa’s lithium output could triple, but only if infrastructure and governance challenges are addressed.

Comparison to 19th Century Colonialism

The current resource scramble bears striking parallels to the 19th-century colonial rush for Africa, but with new actors, tools, and stakes. Then, European powers partitioned the continent at the 1884 Berlin Conference, seeking gold, rubber, and slaves. In 2026, China, the U.S., and others compete through finance, infrastructure, and legal frameworks—often with African governments as junior partners.

Both eras feature extractive models with limited local value addition. In 2025, only 8% of Africa’s exported critical minerals were processed on the continent (African Development Bank, 2026). The economic benefits remain skewed: Chinese and Western firms repatriate an estimated 72% of mining profits, with African states capturing only $5.6 billion in royalties and taxes from $41.3 billion in mineral exports (AfDB, 2026).

However, today’s African governments wield more agency, using licensing, joint ventures, and resource nationalism to extract better terms. Zambia and Zimbabwe, for example, increased royalty rates in 2025 and demanded higher local ownership thresholds. Yet, the core dynamic persists: global powers dominate the value chain, while local communities bear the environmental and social costs.

What to Watch

• Lobito Corridor Completion: Full operationalization by Q4 2026 could reshape mineral export patterns and reduce Chinese logistical dominance.
• Zambian and Zimbabwean Policy Shifts: Any tightening of mining codes or royalty increases could trigger renegotiations or project delays.
• Chinese Strategic Moves: Watch for new merger and acquisition activity, especially targeting rare earths and graphite.
• ESG Enforcement: Increased scrutiny from Western buyers could force supply chain changes, especially if EU and US “battery passports” (2027) require traceability and ethical sourcing.
• Artisanal Mining Risks: Further scandals or disasters in DRC’s artisanal sector could provoke regulatory crackdowns or supply disruptions.
• Australia-Asia-Africa Nexus: Enhanced mineral diplomacy efforts from Australia may channel more African output to Asian EV makers, bypassing Western intermediaries.

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Frequently Asked Questions

1. Which African countries hold the largest reserves of lithium and cobalt? The Democratic Republic of Congo holds 3.5 million metric tons of cobalt reserves (over 70% of global supply), while Zimbabwe has 220,000 metric tons of lithium, the largest in Africa and sixth globally (USGS, 2026).

2. How much has China invested in African critical minerals since 2022? Chinese companies have invested over $12.1 billion in African mining projects focused on lithium, cobalt, and rare earths between 2022 and 2025 (China Mining Association, March 2026).

3. What is the significance of the Lobito Corridor? The Lobito Corridor is a $2.6 billion U.S.- and EU-backed rail and port project connecting Angolan ports to Congolese and Zambian mineral fields. It aims to provide a non-Chinese export route for critical minerals and is expected to be fully operational by late 2026.