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Predictions

Prediction markets, scenario analysis, and calibrated probability forecasts. Track the events most likely to shape 2026 and beyond.

5 articles

Internal desks

Prediction hubs & Kelly sizing

Start from a hub, then deep-dive Kelly utilization, Kelly criterion bet sizing, and prediction-market trading strategies. For commodities, open the gold forecast desk; for risk maps, the geopolitical risk outlook.

Hubs

  • Geopolitical Risk OutlookMonthly risk map with calibrated probabilities.
  • Best Geopolitics NewslettersCategory guide — multi-perspective intel vs pure narrative.
  • Gold Forecast 2026Central banks, China, India, and price-path scenarios.
  • Markets deskLive prices, prediction markets, and market intelligence.
  • Predictions & calibrationAI forecasts vs Polymarket / Metaculus.

Kelly & prediction markets

  • Kelly utilization meaningActual risk ÷ full Kelly — how pros size prediction-market bets.
  • Kelly criterion bet sizingOptimal bankroll fraction, fractional Kelly, worked example.
  • Kelly utilization & PM strategiesExpert edge guide: sizing, overbetting, and prediction markets.
Schiff vs Saylor vs the Banks: Who Got 2026 Right?
Predictions

Schiff vs Saylor vs the Banks: Who Got 2026 Right?

Schiff's gold call is winning. His Bitcoin record is 0-for-22. Saylor said 'not one Satoshi' the day his company's SEC filing showed a sale. Scored.

The Board·Aug 27, 2026·8 min read
Latest in Predictions
8.8-Cent Ceasefire Wallets Beat Official Notices, 2026
Predictions

8.8-Cent Ceasefire Wallets Beat Official Notices, 2026

New wallets bought U.S.–Iran ceasefire Yes at 8.8¢ on April 7 before the official post. Bubblemaps 98% cluster, ACDC stats, OSINT tape.

The Board·Aug 3, 2026
8 min →
Prediction Markets Iran 2026: Forecasting Odds & Expert Analysis
Predictions

Prediction Markets Iran 2026: Forecasting Odds & Expert Analysis

Forecasting markets are pricing Iran war outcomes in real time. Current odds on ceasefire, Hormuz, oil and regime change, plus the insider trading scandal.

The Board·Mar 17, 2026
9 min →
WW3 Odds 2026: Markets Say 12%, Experts 8% - Why They Differ
Predictions

WW3 Odds 2026: Markets Say 12%, Experts 8% - Why They Differ

World War 3 probability 2026: forecasting markets price it near 12%, expert panels near 8%. Four escalation vectors, a risk matrix and historical base rates.

The Board·Mar 17, 2026
9 min →
Oil Below $60: What the Crude Price Collapse Signals for
Predictions

Oil Below $60: What the Crude Price Collapse Signals for

Oil prices are crashing toward levels not seen since the pandemic. Analysis of the G7 SPR release and OPEC fractures.

The Board·Mar 10, 2026
6 min →
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