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Predictions

Prediction markets, scenario analysis, and calibrated probability forecasts. Track the events most likely to shape 2026 and beyond.

9 articles

Internal desks

Prediction hubs & Kelly sizing

Start from a hub, then deep-dive Kelly utilization, Kelly criterion bet sizing, and prediction-market trading strategies. For commodities, open the gold forecast desk; for risk maps, the geopolitical risk outlook.

Hubs

  • Geopolitical Risk OutlookMonthly risk map with calibrated probabilities.
  • Best Geopolitics NewslettersCategory guide — multi-perspective intel vs pure narrative.
  • Gold Forecast 2026Central banks, China, India, and price-path scenarios.
  • Markets deskLive prices, prediction markets, and market intelligence.
  • Predictions & calibrationAI forecasts vs Polymarket / Metaculus.

Kelly & prediction markets

  • Kelly utilization meaningActual risk ÷ full Kelly — how pros size prediction-market bets.
  • Kelly criterion bet sizingOptimal bankroll fraction, fractional Kelly, worked example.
  • Kelly utilization & PM strategiesExpert edge guide: sizing, overbetting, and prediction markets.
Polymarket 8.8-Cent Wallets Beat Official Notices 2026
Predictions

Polymarket 8.8-Cent Wallets Beat Official Notices 2026

New wallets bought U.S.–Iran ceasefire Yes at 8.8¢ on April 7 before the official post. Bubblemaps 98% cluster, ACDC stats, OSINT tape.

The Board·Aug 3, 2026·8 min read
Latest in Predictions
AI Prediction Accuracy Report — July 2026
Predictions

AI Prediction Accuracy Report — July 2026

Our probabilistic forecasting models achieved 70% directional accuracy across 29907 resolved predictions in July 2026. Full calibration analysis, domain breakdown, and methodology inside.

The Board·Aug 1, 2026
8 min→
AI Prediction Accuracy Report — June 2026
Predictions

AI Prediction Accuracy Report — June 2026

Our probabilistic forecasting models achieved 71% directional accuracy across 24922 resolved predictions in June 2026. Full calibration analysis, domain breakdown, and methodology inside.

The Board·Jul 1, 2026
8 min→
AI Prediction Accuracy Report — May 2026
Predictions

AI Prediction Accuracy Report — May 2026

Our probabilistic forecasting models achieved 51% directional accuracy across 23588 resolved predictions in May 2026. Full calibration analysis, domain breakdown, and methodology inside.

The Board·Jun 1, 2026
8 min→
AI Prediction Accuracy Report — April 2026
Predictions

AI Prediction Accuracy Report — April 2026

Our probabilistic forecasting models achieved 60% directional accuracy across 21900 resolved predictions in April 2026. Full calibration analysis, domain breakdown, and methodology inside.

The Board·May 1, 2026
8 min→
AI Prediction Accuracy Report — March 2026
Predictions

AI Prediction Accuracy Report — March 2026

Our probabilistic forecasting models achieved 54% directional accuracy across 4108 resolved predictions in March 2026. Full calibration analysis, domain breakdown, and methodology inside.

The Board·Apr 9, 2026
8 min→
Prediction Markets Iran 2026: Forecasting Odds & Expert Analysis
Predictions

Prediction Markets Iran 2026: Forecasting Odds & Expert Analysis

Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing Iran war outcomes in real time. Current odds on ceasefire, Hormuz, oil prices, regime change — plus the insider trading scandal nobody's covering.

The Board·Mar 17, 2026
9 min→
WW3 Odds 2026: Polymarket 12%, Metaculus 8% — Why They Disagree
Predictions

WW3 Odds 2026: Polymarket 12%, Metaculus 8% — Why They Disagree

World War 3 probability 2026: Polymarket at 12%, Metaculus at 8%. Four escalation vectors analyzed. Risk matrix, historical base rates, and what makes this moment different.

The Board·Mar 17, 2026
9 min→
Oil Below $60: What the Crude Price Collapse Signals for
Predictions

Oil Below $60: What the Crude Price Collapse Signals for

Oil prices are crashing toward levels not seen since the pandemic. Analysis of the G7 SPR release, OPEC fractures, and what sustained low prices mean for global

The Board·Mar 10, 2026
6 min→
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