Is the Iran-Israel-US Alliance Sustainable?

Forged in Crisis: How War Redefined the Middle East Order

The new Iran-Israel-US alliance is a strategic partnership born from the unprecedented crisis following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader in joint US-Israeli strikes. This alliance is defined by transactional cooperation against shared threats, despite decades of hostility, and represents a seismic realignment in Middle Eastern security architecture.

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Key Findings

• The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes triggered regime upheaval and opened the door to unprecedented dialogue between Iran, Israel, and the US.
• Israel and the US executed over 2,000 bomb strikes on Iran in the aftermath, representing 50% of their 12 Day War munitions expenditure from June 2025.
• Iran rebuilt its missile arsenal from a post-war low of 1,300 to 2,500 missiles within eight months, highlighting both its resilience and the persistent threat environment.
• Early overtures by Iran’s new leadership and public celebration in Iranian streets signal a break from 36 years of hardline rule and suggest real, if fragile, prospects for alignment.

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Thesis Declaration

The Iran-Israel-US alliance is the product of existential crisis and mutual strategic necessity, not ideological convergence. This partnership, forged in the aftermath of Ayatollah Khamenei’s death and a cycle of missile escalation, is likely to be transactional, unstable, and highly dependent on sustained external threats—but its emergence will fundamentally reshape regional and global security for at least the next 3-5 years.

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Evidence Cascade

The formation of an Iran-Israel-US alliance would have been unthinkable just a year ago. Yet, a confluence of catastrophic events in 2025—most notably, the joint US-Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei—has upended decades-old hostilities and compelled pragmatic cooperation.

Quantitative Data and Timeline

Table 1: Key Military and Regime Events, 2025-2026

1. The Khamenei Strike and Regime Collapse

• On July 4, 2026, coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei in his Tehran office, ending a 36-year regime defined by hostility to both the US and Israel.
• The Iranian government declared a 40-day mourning period, but significant segments of the Iranian populace celebrated, indicating deep internal fractures and popular exhaustion with the previous regime’s policies.

2. Missile Escalation and Military Balance

• During the June 2025 "12 Day War," Israel and the US reduced Iran’s missile arsenal from approximately 3,000 to 1,300, representing a nearly 57% reduction in operational capacity.
• Within eight months, Iran rebuilt its arsenal to 2,500 missiles—demonstrating both the limitations of military coercion and the enduring capability of Iranian defense industries.

3. Unprecedented Dialogue and Overtures

• Following Khamenei’s death, Iran’s new leadership signaled willingness to engage with the US, with direct outreach reported by former US President Trump, who acknowledged conversations with Iranian representatives.
• This overture marks a stark reversal from four decades of "Death to America" rhetoric and routine threats against Israel.

4. Joint Operations and Shifting Regional Calculus

• Israel’s ongoing airstrikes—2,000 bombs dropped in a single campaign, equaling 50% of total munitions used during the 12 Day War—underscore the scale and urgency of the new alliance’s military coordination.
• The ability of Iran to rapidly reconstitute its arsenal, however, highlights the limits of even intense military cooperation and the need for a broader, more sustainable strategic framework.

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Case Study: The Death of Ayatollah Khamenei and Aftermath

On July 4, 2026, a coordinated airstrike by the United States and Israel targeted the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran. The attack, executed in the early morning hours, was the culmination of months of escalating missile exchanges and cyber skirmishes. Khamenei, who had ruled Iran for 36 years, was killed instantly, along with members of his senior staff. The Iranian government declared a 40-day mourning period. However, as news of his death spread, thousands of Iranians took to the streets in celebration—a rare public display of dissent in the Islamic Republic’s recent history. The Revolutionary Guard, facing fractured loyalty and uncertainty, refrained from immediate violent suppression. Within days, Iran’s new leadership privately reached out to Washington, expressing a readiness to open back-channel talks—an extraordinary development acknowledged in interviews by former US President Trump. This event marked the beginning of a diplomatic thaw and set the stage for pragmatic cooperation between Iran, Israel, and the US.

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Analytical Framework: The "Crisis Realignment Matrix"

To understand the formation, durability, and risks of this alliance, I propose the Crisis Realignment Matrix. This framework evaluates alliances formed under existential threat across four axes:

1. Threat Convergence: The degree to which member states face a shared, credible existential threat.
2. Regime Flexibility: The willingness and ability of leadership to override historical/ideological hostility in favor of pragmatic survival.
3. Transactional Depth: The extent to which cooperation is limited to immediate objectives versus broader strategic integration.
4. Domestic Legitimacy: The level of internal public and elite support for the new alignment.

Applying the Crisis Realignment Matrix to the Iran-Israel-US case:

• Threat Convergence: Maximal—mutual fear of escalation, regime collapse, and external destabilization.
• Regime Flexibility: Temporarily high (post-Khamenei power vacuum).
• Transactional Depth: Shallow—focused on military and security objectives, with limited economic or cultural ties.
• Domestic Legitimacy: Fragile—popular celebration in Iran, but elite factions remain divided; Israeli and US publics are skeptical.

This matrix predicts that alliances forged under crisis are intrinsically brittle and require rapid institutionalization to avoid collapse once the immediate threat subsides.

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Predictions and Outlook

PREDICTION [1/3]: The Iran-Israel-US security alignment will persist through at least December 2027, anchored by ongoing missile threats and the unresolved security vacuum in Tehran. (70% confidence, timeframe: December 2027)

PREDICTION [2/3]: By June 2027, Iran’s missile arsenal will surpass its pre-war level of 3,000 operational missiles, unless formal arms control agreements are reached as part of alliance negotiations. (65% confidence, timeframe: June 2027)

PREDICTION [3/3]: The alliance will remain predominantly transactional, with no formal mutual defense treaty or economic integration established by the end of 2028. (60% confidence, timeframe: December 2028)

What to Watch

• Leadership transitions in Iran: Will the new leadership consolidate power and sustain outreach to the West?
• Missile arsenal rebuild rates: Will technical constraints or sabotage slow Iran’s rearmament?
• Public opinion shifts: Will street-level support translate into stable governance, or will hardliners reassert themselves?
• Signals of formalized cooperation: Look for joint statements, intelligence sharing, or limited security guarantees.

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Historical Analog

This development closely parallels the US-China rapprochement of the early 1970s, when two bitter adversaries set aside deep ideological and historical animosity to counter a shared existential threat—the Soviet Union. The partnership between Washington and Beijing, catalyzed by Nixon’s 1972 visit, permanently altered the global balance of power, even as mutual distrust and unresolved disputes persisted. Like the current Iran-Israel-US alignment, that alliance was forged by crisis and necessity, not affinity, and its durability depended on the persistence of the common threat[Historical Analog Layer].

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Counter-Thesis

The strongest argument against the thesis of enduring realignment is that this alliance is inherently unstable and will dissolve as soon as the immediate threat recedes. Deep ideological hostility, lingering mistrust, and the transactional nature of the arrangement mean that, absent a unifying external enemy, old rivalries will rapidly resurface. The history of the WWII alliance between the US, UK, and USSR supports this view: once Nazi Germany was defeated, the partnership collapsed into the Cold War. Similarly, if Iran’s internal politics shift or the missile threat is neutralized, the alliance could unravel or even turn adversarial again.

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Stakeholder Implications

For Regulators and Policymakers

• Move swiftly to institutionalize dialogue channels, arms control verification, and crisis hotlines to prevent accidental escalation.
• Support domestic reform in Iran and provide measured incentives for continued diplomatic engagement.
• Prepare contingency plans for rapid alliance breakdown if hardliners regain control.

For Investors and Capital Allocators

• Identify opportunities in security, reconstruction, and energy sectors that may benefit from regional stabilization.
• Monitor risk premiums closely—capital flows will be volatile as long as the alliance remains transactional and security conditions precarious.
• Hedge against sudden alliance reversals or renewed conflict, especially in defense and infrastructure sectors.

For Operators and Industry

• Prioritize compliance with evolving export controls and sanctions regimes, as regulatory frameworks will lag behind fast-moving events.
• Build local partnerships in Iran cautiously, focusing on sectors aligned with potential US-Israel-Iran cooperation (e.g., infrastructure, cybersecurity).
• Prepare for sudden operational shifts, including supply chain rerouting or emergency evacuations if instability returns.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What triggered the Iran-Israel-US alliance? A: The alliance emerged after joint US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in July 2026, creating a power vacuum and compelling pragmatic cooperation against ongoing missile threats and internal instability.

Q: How stable is this new alliance? A: The alliance is highly transactional, focused on immediate security needs rather than deep strategic integration. Its stability depends on the persistence of shared threats and the ability of new Iranian leadership to maintain outreach.

Q: Has Iran’s missile capacity been eliminated? A: No. Despite losing more than half its arsenal in the June 2025 war, Iran rebuilt to 2,500 missiles by February 2026—approaching pre-war levels. Full elimination is unlikely without formal agreements.

Q: Are there signs of real public support for this realignment in Iran? A: Yes. Thousands of Iranians celebrated Khamenei’s death, signaling deep public dissatisfaction with the old regime and at least initial support for change. However, elite consensus remains fragile.

Q: What could cause the alliance to collapse? A: The alliance could unravel if the shared external threat dissipates, if Iranian hardliners return to power, or if transactional cooperation fails to deliver tangible security or economic benefits.

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Synthesis

The new Iran-Israel-US alliance is a product of necessity, not trust. It reflects the brutal logic of crisis realignment, where existential threats can override decades of hostility—but only for as long as those threats persist. The durability of this partnership will be measured in years, not generations, unless institutional ties and public legitimacy deepen. For now, global security hinges on the ability of these former adversaries to manage the aftermath of war and resist the gravitational pull of old enmities.

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