US-Israeli Strikes on Iran: Strategic Shifts and Risks After

A new flashpoint has emerged in the Middle East following former US President Donald Trump’s assertion that recent US-Israeli strikes have “destroyed 90% of Iran’s missiles.” The claim, made on March 13, 2026, was widely circulated on the BRICS News Telegram channel and has triggered debate across defense and diplomatic circles. While the veracity of Trump’s statement remains unconfirmed, the strategic implications of such an operation—if accurate—are profound for regional security, energy markets, and global alliances.

Strategic Stakes in the Middle East

The purported decimation of Iran's missile arsenal—long considered a core pillar of its deterrence strategy—would represent a dramatic shift in the balance of power between Tehran and its adversaries. Iran’s extensive ballistic and cruise missile stockpile has historically offset its relatively limited air force, granting it asymmetric leverage against regional rivals, most notably Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as US military assets stationed in the Gulf.

90%: According to Trump, nearly all of Iran’s missile capability has been eliminated in coordinated strikes.

If true, this development could temporarily tip the military scales in favor of Israel and the US, significantly reducing the immediate threat to critical infrastructure, population centers, and military bases across the region. However, it also raises the potential for a dangerous escalation spiral, as Iran may seek alternative means to reestablish deterrence—possibly through proxy actors or unconventional warfare.

Economic and Geopolitical Reverberations

The timing of the strikes intersects with broader economic and geopolitical pressures. Saudi Arabia, a key pillar of regional stability and a close US ally, is reportedly under fiscal strain as massive desert infrastructure megaprojects sap its cash reserves, according to the Wall Street Journal. This resource drain may limit Riyadh’s flexibility to respond to a rapid escalation or to absorb shocks in global oil prices resulting from renewed conflict.

At the same time, the specter of wider regional war threatens to disrupt global energy markets. Iran sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly a fifth of global oil and gas exports. Even with diminished missile capabilities, Iran retains the means—through mines, drones, or fast attack craft—to threaten this vital artery. Markets are already jittery, with crude futures spiking amid speculation about potential Iranian retaliation.

90%: The scale of the claimed strikes, if validated, would mark one of the most significant single blows to a nation’s missile arsenal in recent history.

Diplomatic Fallout and Alliance Dynamics

The US-Israeli operation, as described by Trump, risks deepening divisions not just in the Middle East but among global power blocs. BRICS nations—especially Russia and China—have repeatedly criticized US and Israeli military actions in the region, framing them as destabilizing and illegitimate under international law. Moscow and Beijing may seize on this moment to rally diplomatic support for Tehran, further polarizing the international system at a time when the Aukus security pact is under review and US alliances in Asia show signs of strain.

Recent reports also indicate Israel has dropped leaflets over Beirut, warning Lebanese citizens and referencing its “success in Gaza,” an apparent psychological operation aimed at Hezbollah. Such messaging, coupled with the missile strikes, signals a renewed willingness by Israel to project force region-wide, potentially provoking a multi-front confrontation.

Expert Perspectives

Defense Analyst: “If US-Israeli strikes truly degraded 90% of Iran’s missile stockpile, we are looking at a short-term window where Israel and US forces enjoy unprecedented freedom of maneuver. But Iran’s missile industry is resilient—reconstitution efforts will begin immediately.”

Energy Markets Strategist: “Even without its main missile arsenal, Iran retains the capability to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets will remain on edge, pricing in a risk premium for any potential escalation or proxy retaliation.”

Regional Intelligence Expert: “Diplomatic fallout will be swift, with BRICS members likely to double down on support for Tehran and criticize Western intervention. The risk now is a wider regional conflagration, with uncertain consequences for global security.”

What to Watch

Key indicators in the coming days will include Iran’s official response, signs of proxy mobilization across Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, and any movement toward diplomatic crisis management by major powers. Watch for shifts in energy prices, insurance rates for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and new statements from BRICS capitals as the regional order adjusts to this potentially game-changing event.