Tag
Predictions
Forward-looking analysis with probability assessments
Middle East
The 12-Day War: How Regional Realignment, Not Firepower,
The collapse of the Hamas logistical rear and the emergence of a Saudi-Israel axis successfully forced a resolution where firepower alone had failed.
2026-02-28
Military Tech
Thermal Sovereignty: Why the Laser Weapon Revolution is an
The transition to directed energy will reclassify warfare from a logistics contest of industrial mass to a physics contest of heat dissipation.
2026-02-28
Future Warfare
The Algorithmic Kill-Chain: Why Autonomous Manufacturing
The era of the "exquisite" platform is over; the future belongs to mass-produced autonomy and analog resilience.
2026-02-28
Middle East
The Mirage of the 96-Hour War: Why an Israel-Iran Surgical
Logistics mathematics and coalition dynamics guarantee that a "short" campaign becomes a long defeat.
2026-02-28
Taiwan
Crisis in the Strait: The 2027 "Fragmented Stalemate" and
Wargame analysis suggests a PLA amphibious invasion stalls not on the beaches of Taoyuan, but in the sudden collapse of global transaction ledgers.
2026-02-28
Currency
The Dollar’s Geopolitical Moat: Why Reflexive Traps, Not
Rising alternatives like mBridge face a liquidity paradox that will likely entrench US dollar dominance through 2035 despite eroding fiscal fundamentals.
2026-02-28
Currency
The Death of the BRICS Unit and the Rise of the Hidden
Why the much-hyped gold-backed currency is a strategic decoy for a more dangerous fragmentation of global finance.
2026-02-28
Global Economy
The Fragmentation Trap: Why BRICS Pay Reshapes Finance
The greatest threat to the dollar is not a successor currency, but the disintegration of unified global settlement.
2026-02-28
Supply Chain
The Death of Just-in-Time: Multipolar Logistics and the
Why the era of "efficiency" has collapsed into a regime of strategic redundancy and necessary waste.
2026-02-28
Grand Strategy
The Great Dispersion: Why a 'Weeks-Long' Iran Strike Risks
While Washington prepares for kinetic options in the Middle East and redefines its European commitments, the "Axis of Attrition" is forcing the U.S. into
2026-02-28
Security Architecture
Munich 2026: The Rise of "Subscription Sovereignty" and the
The United States is replacing treaty-based alliances with a mercantilist "pay-to-play" security architecture, driven by the privatization of state
2026-02-28
Global Trade
The Great Decoupling Myth: How "Grey Trade" and Dark
With U.S. tariff revenue up 300% despite falling import volumes, global commerce has shifted from efficient integration to evasive "jurisdictional
2026-02-28
Tech War
The Great Silicon Divergence: Why NVIDIA’s ‘China Gap’
The structural shift from "export blockade" to "intelligence harvesting" creates a false signal of sustainable demand.
2026-02-28
Trade Policy
The 72-Hour Fracture: Assessing the Systemic Fragility of a
Institutional legitimacy—not trade volume—is the primary casualty, creating a binary path between managed realignment and chaotic fragmentation.
2026-02-28
Middle East
Prediction: Why U.S. Will Strike Iran by Q2 2026
Analysis predicts a 65% chance of limited U.S. strikes on Iran by April 2026, driven by fiscal constraints and domestic politics.
2026-02-28
Global Conflict
The Fragmented Global War: Assessing the Shift from Mutual
Why the probability of a "Series of Interconnected Theater Wars" (SITW) now exceeds the risk of total annihilation.
2026-02-28
War Games
The Terminal Geometry of World War III: From Algorithmic
A liquidity crisis, not a border dispute, initiates a systemic seizure that ends globalization in 90 minutes.
2026-02-28
Nato
The 72-Hour Gap: Why Turkey’s Exit from NATO is a Speed
Institutional rigidity, not geopolitical misalignment, has created a 63-79% probability of Turkish exit by 2026.
2026-02-28
Nato
The Bosphorus Trap: Why Economic Fragility, Not Ideology,
Unless the Atlantic Alliance synchronizes military presence with economic stabilization within 90 days, Ankara’s strategic hedging will collapse into a
2026-02-28
Eu China
The Coalition Loyalty Trap: Why EU Secondary Sanctions on
Brussels must pivot to primary energy enforcement and market incentives before the Trump-Xi summit closes the strategic window.
2026-02-28
Monetary Policy
Is the US Dollar Losing Global Reserve Currency Status
Expert panel analyzes the 2035 outlook for the US dollar, identifying fiscal erosion, geopolitical moats, and the risks of Fed credibility loss.
2026-02-27
Macroeconomics
Is the US Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status?
Expert analysis on USD dominance, the rise of alternative reserve assets like gold and bitcoin, and the future of global financial fragmentation.
2026-02-27
Brain Computer Interfaces
The Ethics and Risks of Human-AI Neural Merging
Experts evaluate the inevitability of BCI adoption, addressing cognitive augmentation, security risks, and the emergence of a cognitive aristocracy.
2026-02-27
Trade War
Impact of 2026 US China Semiconductor Tariffs
Expert analysis on the shift to a pay-to-play model for AI chips and the financial implications for US chipmakers like Nvidia.
2026-02-27
Middle East
US-Iran Air War: Strategic Outcomes & Escalation Risks
Expert analysis of a US-Iran air and missile exchange, focusing on strategic outcomes, escalation risks, and survivability of key assets.
2026-02-25
War Games
Israel vs Turkey War Game: Who Wins?
Expert war-game simulation of a conventional Israel vs Turkey conflict. Strategy, attrition, and escalation analysis.
2026-02-25
War Games
Israel vs Turkey War Game Simulation: Who Wins?
Expert panel war game simulates a conflict between Israel and Turkey, analyzing opening moves, campaign strategies, and potential outcomes.
2026-02-25
War Games
Israel vs Turkey War Game: Expert Military Analysis
Expert war game panel simulates a conventional war between Israel and Turkey, analyzing strategies, capabilities, and potential outcomes.
2026-02-25
War Games
Israel vs Turkey War Game: Who Wins?
Expert war-game analysis of a theoretical conventional war between Israel and Turkey, including strategies, advantages, and potential outcomes.
2026-02-25
Technology
Quantum Computing: Hype vs Reality Expert Verdict
Experts debate if quantum computing is overhyped commercially, while also being an underestimated near-term cybersecurity threat.
2026-02-23